(This is the second in a series of articles on the environment and specifically climate change.
Summary -There have been several climate impacts over the last few years. The most prevalent is rising temperatures which led to the faster melting of glaciers which affects land and habitats causing migration of people. Food supplies are affected as areas can’t depend on the new pattern of melting glaciers. At the same time changing precipitation patterns have affected foot supply as has increasing demand. This points to crises points in the next century.
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1. Rising Temperatures
The first decades of the 21st century was the warmest on record, according to NASA.
1998, 2005, 2009, and 2010 ranked as the warmest years on record. The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with 2015-2018 making up the top four, the WMO says.
The main reasons for the warming are the burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) and deforestation, which are adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide emissions reached its highest level in 2018 due to a strong economy and extreme weather conditions. Summers with heatwaves push air conditioning usage and harsher winters lead to more heating. A booming economy has a greater thirst for energy than one that is struggling or even in recession.
We’re standing at a climate crossroads: the world has already warmed 1.1°C since the Industrial Revolution. If we pass 2°C, we risk hitting one or more major tipping points, where the effects of climate change go from advancing gradually to changing dramatically overnight, reshaping the planet.
The change in the global surface temperature between 1850 and the end of the 21st Century is likely to exceed 1.5C, most simulations suggest.
Countries signing up to the Paris agreement pledged to keep temperatures “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C”. Even following pledges that may not be enough. But scientists now agree that we actually need to keep temperature rises to below 1.5C.
To ensure that we don’t pass that threshold, we need to cut emissions in half by 2030. Climate change has understandably fallen out of the public eye in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic rages. Nevertheless, this year, or perhaps this year and next, is likely to be the most pivotal yet in the fight against climate change.
IPCC projections for the end of this century range from an increase of 1.8 to 6°C (3.2 to 10.8°F) depending on various emissions scenarios
2. Rising temperatures causes rise of sea levels though warming of water and melting of glaciers. There are two major reasons why sea levels have been rising: When water warms up, its volume increases. This is called thermal expansion. The melting of glaciers and of the polar ice caps adds huge amounts of freshwater to the oceans.
Due to warmer temperatures, mountain glaciers all over the world are receding. The dramatic worldwide shrinking of the glaciers is one of the most visible evidences of global warming. Glaciers act as a kind of global fever thermometer. Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa, lost one third of its ice within 12 years. About 82% of its icecap surveyed in 1912 is now gone. In the Alps, the glaciers lost about 1/3 of their area and half of their volume between 1850 and 1975. Since then much more has melted. Switzerland went so far as to cover one of its most rapidly melting glaciers to slow down the loss. In the United States, the glaciers in “Glacier National Park” are retreating so quickly it has been estimated that they will vanish entirely by the year 2030.
Melting glaciers pose multiple dangers: Initially, the increasing amount of meltwater can have a positive effect for hydropower. At the same time, emerging glacial lakes have the potential of sudden drainage that could cause devastating floods. In the long term, severe water shortages can be expected when there will be no or only very little ice left to melt in the summer. The time frame for this to happen varies greatly depending on the geographic location; it may be a matter of just a few years, decades, or, in the case of the Himalayas, several centuries.
The rising of sea levels will result in land and habitat loss in many countries. Bangladesh may lose almost 20% of its land area. Hundreds of coastal communities, Small Island states in the Pacific and Indian oceans and the Caribbean would be inundated, forcing their population to relocate. Experts with the United Nations University estimate that rising sea levels and environmental deterioration have already displaced about 50 million people. The greatest cost of rising sea levels will not be measurable.
It is the inevitable disruption of communities and cultures that cannot be replicated elsewhere.
However, in the more distant future, that is later on this century and beyond, hundreds of millions of people will become displaced if sea levels will rise a few meters. Many important, historical cities around the world like Venice, New Orleans, and Amsterdam will be lost to the ocean. Many of the largest cities in the world will sooner or later share the same fate, including Shanghai, Manhattan, Alexandria, and Dhaka. Some 84 of the world’s 100 fastest-growing cities face “extreme” risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change.
Most worrisome is that the polar ice caps began melting as well. The accelerating speed of their melting even surprised scientists who predicted the thawing. From 1979 to 2005, Arctic sea ice has shrunk roughly 250 million acres an area the size of New York, Georgia, and Texas combined. Between 1953 and 2006, the area covered by sea ice in September shrunk by 7.8 percent per decade, more than three times as fast as the average rate simulated by climate models. It reached its lowest point on record in 2012. The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2019 was tied with 2007 and 2016 as the second lowest on record. The maximum extent, reached in March 2019, was tied with 2007 as the seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record.
This decline is rapidly changing the geopolitics of the Arctic region, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in recorded history and triggering a scramble among governments to claim large swaths of the potentially resource-rich Arctic sea floor.
Many now believe the summer Arctic Ocean could be ice-free by 2030, decades earlier than previously thought possible.” The Greenland ice sheet is also melting. It holds enough water to raise sea levels worldwide by 23 feet.
Why are the polar ice caps melting so fast? A major reason is the albedo (reflectivity) effect: Snow and ice are best reflectors of solar radiation. They reflect about 70% of the sun’s radiation (and absorb 30%). Water on the other hand is a poor reflector. It reflects only 6% of the sun’s radiation and absorbs most of the heat (94%). The intense thawing of ice and snow creates more water surfaces. The warming of the water contributes to the regional rise in temperature, which again causes more ice to melt. This ice – albedo feedback is believed to be the major reason why the Arctic is warming so rapidly. [xvi] In addition, the melt water from the surface penetrates into the depths of the ice sheets. The process lubricates the ice sheets and accelerates their movement towards the sea.
3. Water Scarcity has increased from both rise of demand and reduced availability from glaciers. The amount of freshwater is finite while demand is increasing. One billion people around the world don’t have access to clean, safe water. In developing nations, waterborne illnesses like cholera, typhoid and malaria kill 5 million people each year — 6,000 children every day. And global warming is exacerbating this crisis as severe, prolonged droughts dry up water supplies in arid regions and heavy rains cause sewage overflows.
People who fall ill from waterborne diseases can’t work. Women and girls who travel hours, sometimes more than seven hours a day, to fetch clean water for their families can’t go to school or hold on to a job. Without proper sanitation, human waste pollutes waterways and wildlife habitat. Global warming and population pressures are drying up water supplies and instigating conflict over scarce resources.
In many parts of the world, lakes are shrinking or disappearing and rivers are running dry. Lake Chad, for example, has shrunk by 95% since about 1960. This had disastrous consequences for the local population. The main causes are the diversion of water for irrigation and less rainfall because of climate change. Many large rivers like the Yellow River, the Colorado River or the Nile don’t reach the ocean anymore.
The most serious threat to water supply is the disappearance of glaciers which provide much needed melt water during the summer. More than one-sixth of the world’s population will be affected.
The Himalayan region is predicted to be one of the areas hardest hit by climate change. In addition to the loss of water and hydroelectricity supply following glacial shrinkage, the Himalayas are expected to experience sudden and catastrophic flooding resulting from glacial lakes overwhelming their gravel moraine dams; decreased crop production resulting from erratic weather conditions; and the loss of numerous high altitude species unable to adapt to warmer conditions.
4. Water scarcity affects food supplies
We each drink on average nearly about 1 gallon of water per day in one form or another, while the water required to produce our daily food totals at least 528 gallons—500 times as much. This helps explain why 70 percent of all water use is for one purpose—irrigation.”
Aquifers are over-pumped in many countries. There are two types of aquifers: replenishable and nonreplenishable (or fossil) aquifers. Those in India and the shallow aquifer under the North China Plain are replenishable. When these are depleted, the maximum rate of pumping is automatically reduced to the rate of recharge.
For fossil aquifers, such as the vast U.S. Ogallala aquifer, the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, or the Saudi aquifer, depletion brings pumping to an end. Farmers who lose their irrigation water have the option of returning to lower-yield dry land farming if rainfall permits. In more arid regions, however, such as in the southwestern United States or the Middle East, the loss of irrigation water means the end of agriculture.
The U.S. embassy in Beijing reports that wheat farmers in some areas are now pumping from a depth of 300 meters (nearly 1,000 feet). Pumping water from this far down raises pumping costs so high that farmers are often forced to abandon irrigation and return to less productive dry land farming.
Changes in precipitation patterns are observed in many parts of the world. The timing and amount of rain are very important for crops. Farmers need to adapt and learn how to do things differently, for example plant different seeds, or different crops, or plant them at a different time of the year.